Conspiracy theories travel fast and far in traditional countries. For dwellers of the poorer lands—beset by short term life-threatening challenges and subjected to, or at least within sight of, real caloric restraints—find it obvious that dark and powerful forces lie behind events. No doubt it will come to be understood throughout the “third world”, particularly in the Muslim world, that the Anglo-Zionist coalition was thwarted in Syria, and its proxies crushed. The lesson will be: “don’t work for them”.
As much as Arabic and Turkic and Indo-Iranian speaking people have come to hate the USA, they recognize the USA broke Saddam and runs the parts of Afghanistan it wants to run, that still yielded a certain respect. But now Uncle Sam has reached for something else and fallen short.
The Russian-led team in Syria, with a sort of semi-help from the US vassal Kurds in the North, have beaten ISIS, leaving the bandits only a shrinking pocket in the low-value wastes of eastern Syria. How many ISIS fighters were killed, injured, otherwise personally harmed by their losses since Russian President Vladimir Putin ordered strikes begin in late 2015, no one knows for sure, some estimates indicate about 20 thousand killed.
On top of having a chance to sharpen its swords on real combat for the first time since the South Ossetia counteroffensive, the Russian Airforce mission in Syria has shown would-be bandits in the world what happens to the hired mercenaries of the American Empire when they tread too far. Presumably, most mercenaries merely want a shot at loot, women and pay, in risk-adjusted terms, not to be bombed by a suite of Russian ground-attack and bomber aircraft. If you want them to stand around while the Syrian army spots their positions, and then the Russian air force expends short-dated cold war bombs on them, then your opening offer better include more than just cash up front.
We can assume a lot of fifth and sixth sons of Pakistani fathers are and were being stood up to sacrifice themselves for the cause in Syria. And word travels fast in the third world. “Hey guys, did you hear about Abdul’s damn-fool cousin what got blown up by the Russians?” (sic) will be heard across the land. Wherever these soldiers are from, be it Manchester, Pakistan or the Arabian Peninsula, the “well” might well end up being dry for the next excursion.
Can the Anglo-Zionist coalition hope to launch ISIS anew, say in central Asia? Or Chinese Turkistan? Maybe, but they’re going to go up against the recent memory of Russian bombs and Syrian shells. They may also hesitate to risk capital on a venture that’s now proven to be beatable. Historically, when an example is made of one, more submit. Sign up for the next Jihad and risk Russian wrath.
Russia doesn’t want to bomb you
If the Anglo-Zionists do find it harder to raise mercenary armies and goad paramilitary groups into launching revolts, then we may be witnessing the effective end of the empire, or at least, like a virus, a new less lethal phase. The public will simply not stand for big Iraq-like invasions, and if Syria marks the end of the "arms-dump + mercs" strategy that took out Libya and carved Croatia off Yugoslavia, then the only card left is the “Color revolution."
Color revolutions, epitomized by the Maidan coup of 2014, have been a powerful weapon in the Anglo-Zionist arsenal. Still, even the sharpest sword will dull: a strategy that proves successful on an unready foe, will almost definitionally prove less successful on a foe who has prepared himself.
Color revolutions require a coordinated effort by media, assets on the ground such as anarchist collectives and criminal gangs, NGOs, the diplomatic corps and powerfully muscled men with machine guns and other implements of war. A state can do all sorts of things to make a Color revolution hard or impossible to pull off, things Ukraine was not doing in 2014. First and most easily, it can identify and bolster friendly groups within the country to come to the state’s defense in the event of a coup attempt. For example, the Polish state could call up those people who march in nationalist parades, Russia could call up biker gangs and other groups Putinists have fostered and allied with. If protests start in Poland or Russia, the authorities can launch a counter-protest, probably quite quickly. The western MSM can, of course, downplay or even ignore pro-government protestors, or make the issue unclear (as they did in Yugoslavia, Libya, Georgia and Syria), but with the state of contemporary alternative media, word will get out. Pro-government protests are also a good thing for the apathetic of the targeted country to see.
Simply having credible counter-protestors, and lots of loyal police largely gets you out of the Color revolution woods. You can augment these defenses with a state-controlled media channel that a lot of people watch (well funded) and of course ban NGOs. If you are Iran and find yourself in the crosshairs, you might even want to invest in extra prison space.
The current (30 Dec. 2017) “protests” in Iran are a pathetic tantrum. A few hundred young people, probably legitimately aggrieved in some cases, and in others encouraged to protest with cash, took to the streets. The Iranian state responded by marshaling massively bigger counter-protests, Islamic, gender-segregated demonstrations of state support.
Regime loyalists are much more numerous than protestors
Footage of the protests doesn’t speak for itself, CNN tells you what it means
The primary message of the protestors seems to be economic. Iran has a fairly high level of economic development, comparable to Turkey or Romania, but no doubt the government has made errors in its efforts to mitigate the ill effects of modernity, and in cases permitted too narrow a range of economic activity. But it’s important to note that economic and corruption protests are a far cry from what the western establishment media are implying the protests mean. We are led to believe the protestors are fundamentally disloyal, which is unlikely to be the case with a large fraction. The bulk of the protest is not against the Islamic Republic or Iran’s geopolitical alignment. It’s far more likely to be brass tacks than that, at least that’s how it looks, to one not reading Farsi.
The Iranian government may well change policy in light of these protests, tacitly giving in to some demands. But the Iranian state is not threatened. Not by a long shot. The structure of Iranian society, patriarchal and theocratic but not particularly tyrannical, is fundamentally more logical than the structure of western societies. The Iranian model fosters demographic growth among classes that support the Iranian model. The western model on the other hand actively undermines the moral health of the nations which it rules over, burning capital in the process. Iran can wait out the west.
If the empire's abilities have been seriously reduced, it will show on the scale of a few years. The most telling sign will be that large urban zones in the third world stop being blown up and depopulated. The Empire may or may not be able to hack northeast Syria off at the Euphrates, but the greater part of Syria will be under the legitimate Syrian Arab government, with Russian and Iranian influence. Iran will have gained a free highway to its assets in Syria and Lebanon, a nose-thumbing at the Israelis. Angry as they may be, there isn’t much more Israel or America can do, their remaining enemies have had too much time to prepare.
The USA may “huff” Israel may “puff” but they won’t blow this house down
At this point in the game, The American-Zionist empire is out to save face; out to show that all “sovereignty” is still contingent on toeing the imperial line. Look for the media to profile the deployment of the F-22, the one modern fighter the USA can deploy to guarantee air superiority, what with the problems the F-35 has getting hit by Vietnam-era SAMs. More terrorist attacks and mysterious airline disasters in Russia are also a possibility, as are air strikes on Syria, Lebanon or even Iran or North Korea. Russia was outmaneuvered in Ukraine, brilliantly alienated from its sister country by western propaganda and staged protests. In time this victory for the Empire may come to be seen as the high water of American-Israeli power. The empire has now been out-thought and out-fought in Syria, unless it can turn things around in Iran, and transform what appears to be mostly the smoke of propaganda and beltway wish-thinking into the fire of real regime change, the empire's prestige and credibility may be damaged even further.
In light of the Empire's recent impotency, perhaps the Trump administration's military spending binge can be best understood as the retired generals in the Military Industrial Complex, and the Zionist power brokers, attempting to salve their wounded sense of pride with a nice helping of someone else's money. They had a good run, but the days of easy regime change are drawing to a close, regardless of how much the frustrated Neo-Conservative fanatics who populate the Fox News interview circuit may wish the contrary.